I thought this headline may attract all you recruiting junkies, so scroll on down now if you aren’t at all interested in the Kentucky Derby, which is merely 25 days away!  NBC has jumped on board, and they are upping their coverage by an extra half-an-hour for the big day!  This douche will lead you through behind-the-scenes looks at all the Derby celebs. Thanks, NBC. No, really, thanks.

What makes this difficult is that there aren’t any Derby Preps run at Churchill Downs unless you count the Derby Trial, and with a full week to prepare, I give the winner of that race zero chance to win the Derby (although Don’t Get Mad did finish fourth in 2005…that was the ‘Giacomo Debacle’ mind you.)  Speaking of Giacomo, he was the last horse to win the Derby off of a California prep, and I feel that with him being the anomaly, the 2005 Derby stands to be a race that can be thrown out.  Like I have said before, I think that Giacomo wasn’t necessarily bad for fans of horse racing, but definitely bad for handicappers. 

So, a couple of rules to follow when looking at the prep races (these trends are from the past 20 years):

1.  The winner almost always comes out of the Big Four (Santa Anita-6, Bluegrass-5, Wood-4, Arkansas-3); only two horses have taken a different route (Barbaro won the Florida Derby and War Emblem went wire-to-wire in the Illinois).

2.  The winner almost always hits the board in his (or her) final prep race.  Only four horses have failed to place: Giacomo (2005) and Charismatic (1999) in the Santa Anita and Thunder Gulch (1995) and Sea Hero (1993) in the Bluegrass.  

3.  Winning isn’t a must.  Of the horses that have hit the board, eight (8) have won, seven (7) have come in second, and there was only one third place finish (Unbridled in the 1990 Bluegrass).  So, more horses have lost their final prep race than won it.  But, looking at it another way, 75% of them have been in the exacta.

I know that you probably think I am full of it because of my poor picks in last week’s prep races (Denis of Cork 5th, El Gato Malo 5th, Court Vision 3rd), but even if I can’t pick a winner for you, I can promise that the top two horses to come out of the Bluegrass this weekend will have a legitmate shot at winning the Derby. 

Also, keep your eyes peeled for Keeneland Picks-Against-the-Spread for this weekend.  Last weekend, after three days and $174 worth of bets, I ended up down 20 cents.  So, if you didn’t play my picks last week, you probably missed the boat, but who the hell knows?